Analysis | Tua for MVP? After another bonkers week, his odds are rising.

Weekend Sports Betting Takeaways

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is not the No. 1 MVP contender, but he has entered the conversation.  (Julio Cortez/AP)
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is not the No. 1 MVP contender, but he has entered the conversation. (Julio Cortez/AP)

The NFL’s Most Valuable Player award is not particularly difficult to have a disability. You just need to identify the top performing quarterbacks on good teams.

The last nine winners of the award have been quarterbacks, and since 2001, only three non-quarterbacks have won it. Heck, Cooper Cup had a record-setting season in 2021 — he earned the Triple Crown, becoming the first player since 2005 to lead the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. even now He was in third place In voting behind the two quarterbacks, Aaron Rogers And Tom Brady. This makes betting on the award quite straightforward.

This season, the easy choice is Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. The No. 7 pick in the 2018 draft has been at the top of the MVP odds since the markets opened, and his value has only gone down from there, dropping from +600 odds at the open — including a $100 bet of $600. Will win — by around 400 or less on Monday morning. But there are more profitable, if higher-risk, choices under Allen. In fact, you only need to scan the team in front of the Bulls in the AFC East standings to find one such option: Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Tagovailoa — whose MVP odds were 60-1. Just two weeks ago — set career highs with 469 passing yards and six touchdowns. Sunday’s comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens. she is 11th player in last decade Throwing for over 400 yards with five touchdowns in one game. More importantly, the comeback put Miami at 2-0, a record only held by the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC, though the Bulls could join them with a win Monday night.

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Is Tagovailoa’s performance enough to dethrone Allen as the favorite, or even put him in the top tier? Clearly not. But his odds – which range from +1800 to +2500 on Monday morning at some online sportsbooks – are troubling, and another strong performance is unlikely to last, especially if it’s Allen & Be it against the Bulls or Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami’s next two opponents.

At the very least, Tagovailoa should be thought of in the same tier as Tom Brady, Burrow and Jalen Hurts, whose odds are lower than Tagovailoa’s in at least some books. The Dolphins quarterback is ahead of every quarterback but Allen In ESPN’s Total Quarterback Ratingsa measure of how valuable each quarterback is relative to the league at large.

The Bengals were a sure thing (until they weren’t).

The Cincinnati Bengals opened Week 2 as 1½ underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys on the visible line, before Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott injured made Bengal a seven-point favourite. As you might expect, bettors lined up to take advantage of this development and used the Bengals in a variety of bets, such as parlays and teasers (in which the Bengals would only need to win, or less The Bengals-Cowboys matchup was a must-win by points, according to Dave Mason of BeatonLine. Biggest teased game of the day. Action Network Estimation 81 percent Among the tickets on the game’s point spread were for Cincinnati, as were 95 percent of the tickets on the money line.

This was not good for the majority. The Bengals fell behind 14-3 by the end of the first quarter and were looking at a 17-3 scoreboard going into the locker room at halftime. Cincinnati would outscore Dallas 14-3 in the second half, but the defending AFC champions couldn’t stop Dallas backup quarterback Cooper Rush from orchestrating the game-winning drive. Dallas kicker Brett Maher hit a 50-yard field goal to win it as time expired.

Do not tear up these tickets

If anyone still needs to sell the NFL as an entertainment and gambling product, Sunday’s results worked. For the first time in 30 years, According to NFL ResearchThree teams came back from fourth-quarter deficits of at least 13 points to win — and all three teams were big underdogs.

Cardinals 29, Raiders 23 (OT): Down 23-7 entering the fourth quarter, Arizona (5.5-point underdog) had two touchdowns and two two-point conversions to force overtime and then drove 59-yards for a touchdown. Won on a faded comeback.

Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray somehow At a distance of 85.69 yards To get into the end zone on the first of those conversions.

Chances of a Raiders win early in the fourth quarter? 97.8 percent, According to ESPN.

Dolphins 42, Ravens 38: With a 28-7 lead at halftime and a 35-14 lead with less than 13 minutes to play, Baltimore appeared to be on its way to an easy win — and a cover as a 7.5-point favorite. But Tagovailoa threw four fourth-quarter touchdown passes, the last one to Jaylen Waddle for a ridiculous comeback with 14 seconds left.

With just under eight minutes remaining, the Ravens had a 97.8 percent chance of victory (Per ESPN). But on the very next play, Tagovailoa threw a 48-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill.

Jets 31, Browns 30: Cleveland led by 13 points with just 1:55 left, but a Browns extra point, a quick New York touchdown drive, a successful onside kick and Joe Flacco’s 15-yard touchdown pass to Garrett Wilson made it 22. A ridiculous victory over the Jets (a 6.5-point underdog) with seconds remaining.

The fourth quarter and overtime theatrics in the Cardinals-Raiders game helped cover up a pretty awful loss for anyone with an under-52 ticket on the game’s scoring total.

The teams had combined to score just 30 points midway through the fourth quarter, but the Cardinals awoke from their game-long slumber, driving 54 yards on nine plays with 8 minutes, 17 seconds left to cut their deficit to 23-15. Given and then forced to raid. What followed was a long, brutal march to the end zone for the underbeaters, 18 plays of more than 73 yards that included three fourth-down conversions and two Raiders defensive holding penalties. Murray’s three-yard touchdown scramble and subsequent two-point conversion at the final gun knotted things up at 23.

The unders still had a chance in overtime, as the Cardinals’ opening drive petered out in Las Vegas territory. All the Raiders (and the underbeaters) needed was a field goal. Instead, it happened:

Byron Murphy Jr.’s fumble return 59 yards for a touchdown in overtime gave the Cardinals the win. 29-23 win And gamblers under 52 suffer the cruelest blows.

At least bettors on the Cardinals-Raiders game got their money back. Anyone who was below 59.5 on Saturday. The Syracuse-Purdue game Wasn’t so lucky.

Through three quarters, the Orange and Boilermakers had combined for just 19 points, but had 349 combined yards, 15 first downs and, sadly, 42 points in the fourth quarter for whoever was over. Syracuse would win, 32-29, on Garrett Schrader’s 25-yard touchdown pass to Orond Gadsden II with seven seconds left.

Boilermakers did this to themselves. After taking a 29-25 lead late in the fourth quarter, they somehow committed seven penalties in the final 51 seconds of the game.

Western Kentucky led Indiana 24-19 entering the fourth quarter Saturday, and the Hilltoppers scored first and goal from the Hoosiers’ 3-yard line on their first drive of the final stanza. But after a one-yard pass, an incompletion and a run for no gain, Western Kentucky punted for three points and a 27-19 lead. This won’t be the last chance to kick back.

The teams traded field goals, and Western Kentucky led 30-22 when Indiana took over with 3:46 remaining. After being spurred by three Hilltoppers defensive penalties, Connor Bazlak finally found Cam Kemper for a four-yard touchdown pass, and the successful two-point conversion tied the score at 30.

With just 47 seconds left, Western Kentucky rushed down the field and gave kicker Braden Norvison a chance to win, but his 44-yard attempt went wide. Then, in overtime, the Hoosiers did:

Charles Campbell’s 51-yard field goal to secure Indiana’s overtime possession clinched it, breaking the hearts of anyone hoping for an upset of Western Kentucky (although the Hilltoppers still had a 6.5-point spread). What is covered). According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, this was the most unexpected result of the week:

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